What Is Agentic Commerce? 45% of Shoppers Use AI (2026)
According to the IBM Institute for Business Value (January 2026), 45% of consumers already use AI for at least part of their buying journey. This number represents a fundamental shift in how people shop online. Agentic commerce is the technology making this shift possible, and if you are a brand, retailer, or marketer, understanding it is no longer optional.
On January 11, 2026, Google CEO Sundar Pichai announced the Universal Commerce Protocol at the National Retail Federation conference, signaling that the era of AI-completed purchases has officially arrived. This guide explains what agentic commerce means, how it works, who the key players are, and what brands must do to prepare.
What You'll Learn
The precise definition of agentic commerce and how it differs from conversational commerce
How agentic transactions work step-by-step (from user request to completed purchase)
The technology stack powering agentic commerce (UCP, ACP, MCP, A2A protocols)
Real-world examples from Walmart, Shopify, and Estee Lauder already using this technology
Market projections from McKinsey, Morgan Stanley, and Gartner for 2026-2030
A practical readiness checklist for brands preparing their infrastructure
Summary: Agentic Commerce Statistics at a Glance
Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
Consumers using AI in buying journey | 45% | |
AI application usage surge (2-year growth) | 62% | |
Global agentic commerce market by 2030 | $3-5 trillion | |
US e-commerce agentic spending by 2030 | $190-385 billion | |
B2B purchases via AI agents by 2028 | 90% | |
B2B spending through AI exchanges by 2028 | $15 trillion | |
Users who say AI is their primary search source | 44% | |
Consumers willing to use AI for repetitive purchases | 47% |
What Is Agentic Commerce? A Clear Definition
Agentic commerce is a new model of online shopping where AI agents do not just recommend products but actually complete purchases on behalf of users. The AI handles the entire transaction workflow: finding products, comparing options, checking availability, applying discounts, processing payment, and confirming orders. The human user sets parameters and approves decisions rather than clicking through each step manually.
Google's official definition from their January 2026 announcement states: "Agentic commerce is where AI doesn't just suggest products, but actually helps complete the task of checking out."
This represents a fundamental shift from the traditional e-commerce model that has dominated online retail since the 1990s. In traditional e-commerce, the customer searches, browses, adds items to cart, enters shipping information, provides payment details, and clicks "Place Order." In agentic commerce, the customer tells an AI agent what they need, and the agent handles everything else within predefined boundaries.
Key Finding: McKinsey (October 2025) defines agentic commerce as "AI that anticipates consumer needs, navigates shopping options, negotiates deals, and executes transactions."
The word "agentic" comes from "agency," meaning the capacity to act independently. An agentic AI has the authority and capability to take actions in the real world, including spending money, without requiring human approval for each individual step. Users grant permissions, set budgets, define preferences, and the agent operates within those constraints.
How Does Agentic Commerce Differ from Conversational Commerce?
Many people confuse agentic commerce with conversational commerce, but these are distinct categories with different levels of AI autonomy. Understanding this distinction is essential for brands developing their AI strategy.
Conversational Commerce
Conversational commerce involves chatting with AI assistants that suggest products and answer questions, but the human still makes all purchasing decisions. According to Forrester (October 2025), "conversational commerce requires continuous human input and decision-making."
Examples of conversational commerce include:
Asking ChatGPT for product recommendations and then manually visiting stores to purchase
Using a chatbot to find product specifications and then adding items to cart yourself
Getting price comparisons from an AI assistant and then completing checkout yourself
Agentic Commerce
Agentic commerce operates autonomously once the user establishes parameters and permissions. The AI agent executes the full purchase without requiring the human to click "buy" themselves.
According to Forrester (October 2025), "agentic commerce operates autonomously once parameters and permissions established." The same analysis notes that "current tools are more assistive than agentic," meaning true agentic capabilities are still emerging.
Feature | Conversational Commerce | Agentic Commerce |
|---|---|---|
Human role | Makes all decisions | Sets parameters, approves |
AI role | Suggests and assists | Executes transactions |
Checkout | Human-completed | Agent-completed |
Interaction | Continuous dialogue | Delegate and approve |
Current maturity | Widely available | Emerging (2026) |
Pro Tip: The key question to determine which category applies: "Who clicks the buy button?" If the human does, it is conversational commerce. If the AI does, it is agentic commerce.
The shift from conversational to agentic represents a progression in consumer trust and AI capability. As Checkout.com research (December 2025) found, 47% of consumers say they would use an AI agent for boring or repetitive purchases, with over two-thirds of shoppers aged 25-44 willing to delegate repetitive purchases to AI.
How Does Agentic Commerce Work? The Transaction Flow
Understanding the step-by-step transaction flow helps brands prepare their infrastructure. Here is how a typical agentic commerce purchase works in practice.
Step 1: User Request and Parameter Setting
The user communicates their need to an AI agent through natural language. This might be: "Order me running shoes under $150, same brand as my last pair, delivered by Friday." The user has previously configured their payment methods, shipping addresses, and spending limits within the AI platform.
Step 2: Agent Query Processing
The AI agent interprets the request and formulates a shopping query. This is where query fan-out processes that AI agents use for product discovery become relevant. The agent expands the simple request into multiple sub-queries to find relevant products across retailers.
Step 3: Multi-Retailer Discovery and Comparison
The agent searches across connected retailers, comparing products, prices, availability, shipping times, and reviews. This process happens in seconds. According to Signifyd (December 2025), traditional shopping might take hours of browsing and comparison, while agentic AI systems can analyze thousands of options almost instantly.
The agent uses similar logic to how AI systems choose which sources to prioritize when ranking products and retailers based on relevance, trustworthiness, and user preferences.
Step 4: Selection and Confirmation
The agent presents a recommendation to the user with reasoning. For high-value purchases, the agent may request approval. For routine purchases within preset parameters, the agent may proceed directly to checkout.
Step 5: Transaction Execution
The agent securely communicates with the merchant's systems using protocols like UCP (Universal Commerce Protocol) or ACP (Agentic Commerce Protocol). Payment is processed through the user's pre-authorized payment method. The agent handles address verification, discount codes, and order confirmation.
Step 6: Post-Purchase Support
The agent tracks the order, provides shipping updates, and can handle returns or exchanges if needed. The entire shopping journey, from discovery to post-purchase support, is orchestrated by the AI agent.
Watch Out: Users must carefully configure spending limits and approval requirements. An AI agent with unlimited purchasing authority and poor constraints could make unwanted purchases.
What Is the Technology Stack Behind Agentic Commerce?
Agentic commerce requires new protocols and infrastructure to enable AI agents to communicate with merchants and payment providers. Several competing and complementary protocols have emerged.
Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP)
Google announced the Universal Commerce Protocol at NRF 2026 on January 11, 2026. According to Sundar Pichai's remarks, "UCP is designed to be an open standards for agentic commerce that works across the entire shopping journey from discovery and buying to post purchase support."
Key characteristics of UCP from the Google Developers documentation:
"UCP establishes a common language for agents and systems to operate together across consumer surfaces, businesses and payment providers"
Compatible with Agent Payments Protocol (AP2)
Provides flexible integration via APIs, Agent2Agent (A2A), and Model Context Protocol for AI agent data access
UCP was co-developed with Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, Target, and Walmart. It has been endorsed by over 20 partners including Adyen, American Express, Best Buy, Flipkart, Macy's Inc, Mastercard, Stripe, The Home Depot, Visa, and Zalando.
For technical implementation details, see our complete guide to Universal Commerce Protocol implementation.
Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)
OpenAI launched the Agentic Commerce Protocol alongside the "Buy it in ChatGPT" feature. According to OpenAI (September 2025), the protocol was co-developed with Stripe and enables secure transactions between AI agents and merchants.
ACP allows ChatGPT users to purchase directly from merchants without leaving the conversation. The initial launch included U.S. Etsy sellers, with over 1 million Shopify merchants including Glossier, SKIMS, Spanx, and Vuori announced as coming soon.
Agent2Agent (A2A) Protocol
A2A enables AI agents from different providers to communicate with each other. This allows a user's personal AI assistant to negotiate with a retailer's AI agent, creating agent-to-agent transactions without human intermediation on either side.
How These Protocols Work Together
Protocol | Developer | Purpose | Status (January 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
UCP | Google + Partners | Universal commerce standard | Launching |
ACP | OpenAI + Stripe | ChatGPT transactions | Live (US) |
A2A | Multiple | Agent-to-agent communication | Emerging |
MCP | Anthropic | Data access layer | Live |
TL;DR:
UCP is Google's open standard for the entire shopping journey
ACP is OpenAI's protocol for ChatGPT transactions
A2A enables agents to talk to each other
MCP provides the data access layer underneath
Who Are the Key Players in Agentic Commerce?
Multiple technology giants and e-commerce platforms are racing to define the agentic commerce ecosystem.
Google's announcements at NRF 2026 positioned the company as a central player. Key developments from Google's official blog (January 2026):
Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) launch with major retail partners
Buy button coming directly to Google surfaces including AI Mode in Search and Gemini
Business Agent feature launching January 12, 2026, allowing shoppers to chat with brands directly on Search
OpenAI
OpenAI's "Buy it in ChatGPT" feature represents the first mainstream agentic commerce implementation. According to OpenAI (September 2025), U.S. ChatGPT Plus, Pro, and Free users can purchase directly from U.S. Etsy sellers, with over 1 million Shopify merchants announced as coming soon.
Shopify
Shopify announced Agentic Storefronts in their Winter '26 Edition (December 2025). The feature allows customers to purchase and checkout directly in ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Microsoft Copilot. Shopify Catalog uses signals from millions of merchants and products to structure data for AI understanding.
Walmart
Walmart announced (January 2026) a partnership with Google: "Walmart Inc. and Google announced plans to launch a new experience that pairs the intelligence of Google's Gemini with Walmart and Sam's Club's assortment, value and convenience." Walmart built a new experience accessible directly within Gemini using Universal Commerce Protocol.
Additional Players
Perplexity: Launching Perplexity Shopping with purchase capabilities. Brands can track your product visibility in Perplexity Shopping to monitor AI discovery.
Microsoft Copilot: Integrated with Shopify Agentic Storefronts
Payment providers: Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Stripe, and Adyen have all endorsed UCP
What Are Real-World Examples of Agentic Commerce?
Several brands have already implemented or announced agentic commerce capabilities.
Walmart + Google Gemini Integration
Walmart's UCP implementation allows users to shop Walmart's entire assortment through Google's Gemini AI. Users can describe what they need in natural language, and Gemini can find products from Walmart, check availability, and facilitate checkout. This represents one of the first major retailer implementations of agentic commerce at scale.
Shopify Agentic Storefronts
Shopify enables any merchant on their platform to sell through AI conversations. According to Shopify (December 2025), customers can purchase and checkout directly in ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Microsoft Copilot. Shopify's Catalog feature structures product data specifically for AI agent consumption.
Estee Lauder AI Scent Advisor
According to Google Cloud (January 2026), "The Estée Lauder Companies and Jo Malone London built the AI Scent Advisor, a conversational agent that recreates the brand's signature in-store consultation for the digital world." This implementation uses Vertex AI and Gemini to provide personalized fragrance recommendations.
Retailers Using Gemini Enterprise for CX
Google Cloud (January 2026) announced Gemini Enterprise for Customer Experience, with early adopters including Kroger, Lowe's, Papa John's, and Woolworths. These implementations focus on customer service automation that can handle transactions.
Key Finding: The January 2026 announcements show agentic commerce moving from concept to production. Major retailers and technology companies are now deploying real systems that complete purchases autonomously.
What Is the Market Size and Growth Projection for Agentic Commerce?
Multiple research firms have published projections for agentic commerce growth. The consensus shows massive market potential with rapid adoption expected through 2030.
Global Market Projections
According to McKinsey (October 2025), agentic commerce could generate $3 trillion to $5 trillion globally by 2030. The same analysis projects the US B2C retail market could see up to $1 trillion in orchestrated revenue from agentic commerce.
US E-Commerce Projections
Morgan Stanley (December 2025) estimates that agentic shoppers could represent $190 billion to $385 billion in U.S. e-commerce spending by 2030. This represents 10% to 20% market share capture of the total online retail market.
According to Bain, the U.S. agentic commerce market could reach $300 billion to $500 billion by 2030, representing 15% to 25% of total online retail sales.
B2B Market Projections
The B2B market shows even more aggressive projections. According to Gartner via Digital Commerce 360 (November 2025):
90% of all B2B purchases will be handled by AI agents by 2028
$15 trillion in spending will flow through automated exchanges by 2028
Agentic AI is projected to cut cost-to-value gap in process-centric service contracts by at least 50% by 2027
Consumer Adoption Statistics
Current adoption data from the IBM Institute for Business Value (January 2026), based on a survey of more than 18,000 consumers:
Consumer use of AI applications like ChatGPT and Google Gemini surged 62% over the last two years
Gen X adoption increased 82%
Boomer adoption increased 92%
45% of consumers already use AI for part of the buying journey
41% use AI assistants to research products
33% use AI to look for reviews
31% use AI to search for deals
This shift in consumer behavior explains why how zero-click search is reshaping e-commerce discovery has become a critical topic for retailers. Traditional search traffic is declining as AI-powered discovery channels grow.
How Can Brands Prepare for Agentic Commerce?
Brands that want to succeed in the agentic commerce era need to prepare their technical infrastructure, data quality, and strategic positioning.
1. Implement Structured Data Markup
AI agents need to understand your products programmatically. This requires comprehensive structured data using Schema.org markup for products, pricing, availability, reviews, and shipping information. Without proper structured data, AI agents cannot reliably discover or recommend your products.
2. Optimize Product Feeds
Your product data must be accurate, complete, and updated in real-time. AI agents making purchasing decisions on behalf of users have zero tolerance for inaccurate inventory, wrong pricing, or incomplete product descriptions. Every product attribute matters.
3. Build Strong Brand Entity Recognition
AI systems need to recognize your brand as a distinct entity. This involves consistent naming, authoritative citations across the web, and clear brand information in knowledge graphs. When a user asks for "Nike running shoes," the AI must understand what Nike is and what running shoes from Nike look like.
4. Prepare for Protocol Integration
Evaluate UCP, ACP, and other emerging protocols. Determine which platforms your customers use most and prioritize those integrations. Shopify merchants can access Agentic Storefronts relatively easily. Other merchants may need direct protocol implementation.
5. Set Up AI Agent Authentication
Your systems need to recognize and authenticate AI agents as legitimate shoppers. This differs from traditional bot detection, which often blocks automated traffic. AI agents must be able to browse, check inventory, and complete purchases without triggering security systems.
6. Monitor AI Visibility
Track how your products appear in AI shopping results. Use AI visibility monitoring tools to understand whether AI agents are discovering and recommending your products.
TL;DR: Brand Readiness Checklist
Complete Schema.org structured data on all products
Real-time inventory and pricing in product feeds
Consistent brand identity across web properties
Technical integration with UCP/ACP protocols
AI agent authentication systems configured
AI visibility monitoring in place
Agentic Commerce vs Traditional E-Commerce: Key Differences
Understanding the fundamental differences helps brands adapt their strategies.
Dimension | Traditional E-Commerce | Agentic Commerce |
|---|---|---|
User interaction | Click-driven browsing | Instruction-driven delegation |
Decision maker | Human at every step | AI agent with human parameters |
Discovery method | Search, browse, filter | Natural language request |
Comparison shopping | Manual across tabs/sites | Automated across retailers |
Transaction speed | Minutes to hours | Seconds to minutes |
Checkout process | Multi-step forms | Automated with stored credentials |
Personalization | Based on cookies/history | Based on conversation context |
Post-purchase | Email confirmations | Agent-managed tracking |
Return handling | Customer-initiated | Agent-assisted or automated |
As Signifyd (December 2025) summarized: traditional e-commerce is "human-led and click-driven" while agentic commerce is "agent-led and instruction-driven."
The implications for retailers are significant:
Website design matters less when AI agents are the primary interface
Product data quality matters more than ever
Brand trust and entity recognition become critical ranking factors
Speed and reliability of inventory systems become competitive advantages
What Are the Challenges and Concerns with Agentic Commerce?
Despite the potential, agentic commerce faces significant challenges that brands and consumers should understand.
Consumer Trust and Privacy
According to the IBM Institute for Business Value (January 2026), while 52% of consumers are comfortable sharing data with AI shopping agents, 83% express concerns about privacy, data misuse, and unwanted marketing.
This trust gap represents the biggest barrier to adoption. Consumers want the convenience of AI shopping but worry about:
AI agents having access to payment information
Data being used for purposes beyond the transaction
Loss of control over purchasing decisions
Lack of transparency in how agents make choices
Payment Infrastructure Challenges
Existing payment infrastructure was not designed for AI agents as customers. Issues include:
Authentication designed for humans (CAPTCHA, 2FA)
Fraud detection systems that flag automated behavior
Terms of service written for human users
Liability questions when AI makes mistakes
Loss of Customer Relationships
Retailers worry about losing direct customer relationships when AI agents intermediate all transactions. If a user asks their AI for running shoes and the agent picks Nike, the customer never visits Nike's website or receives Nike's marketing.
Regulatory Uncertainty
The EU AI Act will enforce strict rules beginning August 2026, with potential fines up to 7% of global revenue for non-compliance. Regulations around AI-completed transactions, consumer protection, and liability remain in flux.
Watch Out: Brands must balance enthusiasm for agentic commerce with realistic assessment of these challenges. Early movers gain advantages, but moving too fast without addressing trust and compliance issues creates risk.
What Does the Future of AI Shopping Agents Look Like?
Looking at the trajectory from current announcements and projections, several developments seem likely.
Near-Term (2026)
UCP and ACP protocols gain broader adoption
Major retailers launch agentic commerce integrations
Consumer adoption concentrated in routine/replenishment purchases
B2B agentic purchasing expands in procurement
Regulatory frameworks begin crystallizing
Medium-Term (2027-2028)
According to Gartner via Digital Commerce 360 (November 2025), by 2028, 90% of all B2B purchases will be handled by AI agents, with $15 trillion flowing through automated exchanges.
Consumer adoption will likely follow B2B as trust builds and capabilities mature.
Long-Term (2030)
The projections from McKinsey ($3-5 trillion globally) and Morgan Stanley (10-20% of US e-commerce) suggest agentic commerce will become a standard shopping channel alongside traditional e-commerce.
According to Bain, adoption will vary by product category, with specification-driven purchases (groceries, consumer packaged goods, basic electronics) shifting first, followed by more considered purchases.
Frequently Asked Questions About Agentic Commerce
What is agentic commerce in simple terms?
Agentic commerce is when AI completes purchases for you instead of just recommending products. You tell the AI what you need, set your preferences and budget, and the AI handles finding products, comparing options, and completing the checkout. You approve rather than click through each step yourself.
How is agentic commerce different from voice commerce?
Voice commerce (like shopping through Alexa) typically still requires you to approve each step and confirm purchases verbally. Agentic commerce gives the AI more autonomy to complete transactions within your preset parameters without requiring approval for each action. Voice can be an interface to agentic commerce, but they are not the same thing.
Is agentic commerce safe for my payment information?
Agentic commerce protocols like UCP and ACP are designed with security in mind. Your payment information is typically stored with payment providers (not the AI itself), and transactions use tokenization and encryption. However, you should only use agentic commerce through trusted platforms and carefully configure spending limits.
Which AI assistants can do agentic shopping right now?
As of January 2026, ChatGPT offers agentic shopping through its "Buy it in ChatGPT" feature for U.S. users with U.S. Etsy sellers and expanding to Shopify merchants. Google is launching buy buttons in AI Mode and Gemini. Perplexity Shopping is emerging. The ecosystem is expanding rapidly.
What products are best suited for agentic commerce?
According to industry analysts, routine and specification-driven purchases will shift to agentic commerce first. This includes groceries, household essentials, basic electronics, and product replenishment. High-consideration purchases (luxury goods, major appliances) will likely retain more human involvement longer.
Do I need to use agentic commerce to shop online?
No, traditional e-commerce will continue to exist. Agentic commerce is an additional option, not a replacement. Many consumers will use a mix of both approaches depending on the purchase type and their personal preferences.
How do AI agents choose which products to recommend?
AI agents consider multiple factors including user preferences, product specifications, reviews, price, availability, shipping speed, and brand reputation. The exact algorithms vary by platform. Brands can improve their visibility by having comprehensive structured data, positive reviews, and strong brand entity recognition.
What is UCP and why does it matter?
UCP (Universal Commerce Protocol) is an open standard announced by Google for agentic commerce. It matters because it allows AI agents to communicate with merchants in a standardized way, similar to how HTTP enabled the web. Broad adoption of UCP could make agentic commerce interoperable across different AI platforms and retailers.
Can businesses integrate agentic commerce into their websites?
Yes, businesses can integrate through several paths: joining the Shopify ecosystem to access Agentic Storefronts, implementing UCP or ACP protocols directly, or partnering with platforms that support agentic commerce. The technical requirements vary based on your current e-commerce infrastructure.
What happens if an AI agent makes a mistake with my purchase?
Liability frameworks for AI-agent errors are still developing. Current implementations typically treat the AI as acting on the user's behalf, making the user responsible for purchases within their configured parameters. Returns and exchanges follow standard retailer policies. This is an area where regulations will likely provide more clarity.
Sources
Google (January 2026). "New tech and tools for retailers to succeed in an agentic shopping era." https://blog.google/products/ads-commerce/agentic-commerce-ai-tools-protocol-retailers-platforms/
Google (January 2026). "Read Sundar Pichai's remarks at the 2026 National Retail Federation." https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/nrf-2026-remarks/
Google Developers (January 2026). "Under the Hood: Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP)." https://developers.googleblog.com/under-the-hood-universal-commerce-protocol-ucp/
Shopify (December 2025). "Introducing Shopify Agentic Storefronts." https://www.shopify.com/news/winter-26-edition-agentic-storefronts
OpenAI (September 2025). "Buy it in ChatGPT: Instant Checkout and the Agentic Commerce Protocol." https://openai.com/index/buy-it-in-chatgpt/
IBM Institute for Business Value (January 2026). "Own the agentic commerce experience." https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/institute-business-value/en-us/report/agentic-commerce
McKinsey (October 2025). "The agentic commerce opportunity." https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-agentic-commerce-opportunity-how-ai-agents-are-ushering-in-a-new-era-for-consumers-and-merchants
Morgan Stanley (December 2025). "Agentic Commerce Impact Could Reach $385 Billion by 2030." https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/agentic-commerce-market-impact-outlook
Digital Commerce 360 / Gartner (November 2025). "Gartner: AI agents will command $15 trillion in B2B purchases by 2028." https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2025/11/28/gartner-ai-agents-15-trillion-in-b2b-purchases-by-2028/
Checkout.com (December 2025). "Research signals first AI Christmas." https://www.checkout.com/newsroom/checkout-com-research-signals-first-ai-christmas-with-consumers-set-to-embrace-agentic-commerce-in-2026
Forrester (October 2025). "Agentic Commerce? Conversational Commerce?" https://www.forrester.com/blogs/agentic-commerce-conversational-commerce-the-future-of-owned-digital-shopping-experiences/
Signifyd (December 2025). "Agentic commerce vs. traditional ecommerce: 7 Key differences." https://www.signifyd.com/blog/agentic-commerce-vs-traditional-ecommerce-7-key-differences/
Google Cloud (January 2026). "A new era of agentic commerce is here." https://cloud.google.com/transform/a-new-era-agentic-commerce-retail-ai
Walmart Corporate (January 2026). "Walmart and Google Turn AI Discovery Into Effortless Shopping Experiences." https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2026/01/11/walmart-and-google-turn-ai-discovery-into-effortless-shopping-experiences
About the Author
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