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Happy Friday, Moz fans.
Today I want to talk to you about AI overviews, which is probably not a new topic, or I hope
it's not a new topic to you by now.
But specifically, I want to talk about this slightly hyperbolic question.
Did we pass peak AI overview?
What I mean by that is, have we in some ways got to the point where AI overviews are trending
figuratively and literally downwards?
So what do I mean by that?
So what I'm really talking about is some data that we've started to see over the course
of 2025, particularly in the second half of 2025, where it's getting more and more common
to see SERPs like this one.
So this is just an example.
As you can see, it doesn't even have real words on it.
But basically, you can see these situations where you might have an organic result, and
then an organic result, and then an AI overview.
AI-generated overview
Tom Capper analyzes emerging data showing AI overviews (AIOs) appearing below position one in 15% of desktop and 13% of mobile searches as of October 2025. This represents a significant shift from AIOs' historical dominance at the top of SERPs. Navigational queries show the highest rate (26%) of non-position-one AIOs, indicating Google prioritizes direct branded results when user intent is clear. Overall AIO prevalence peaked at 43% for informational queries in July 2025 but declined to 37% by October, while other intent types remained steady. Moz tracked 40,000 keywords and observed AIOs appearing as low as position six when multiple result types (organic, images, featured snippets, discussions) rank higher. Capper positions Google's AI Mode as a ChatGPT competitor rather than the future default SERP, and highlights Search Labs' "web guides" feature as a potential hybrid between traditional SERPs and AI Mode.
In October 2025, about 15% of AIOs on desktop and 13% on mobile appeared in position two or lower—a trend that "never used to happen" historically, signaling Google is deprioritizing AIOs when confident about user intent.
Navigational queries (typically branded searches like "Amtrak routes" or "Starbucks menu") had 26% of AIOs below position one, demonstrating Google gives priority to direct links when users clearly want a specific site.
AIO prevalence for informational queries peaked at 43% in July 2025 but declined to 37% by October, while non-informational intents remained stable—suggesting the "great decoupling" traffic squeeze may be easing.
AIOs now appear as low as position six with multiple result types (organic, image packs, featured snippets, forum discussions) ranking above them, indicating a more nuanced ranking system than pure AIO dominance.
Have AI Overviews (AIOs) finally started to trend downward? In this Whiteboard Friday, Tom Capper dives into new data from late 2025 to answer the hyperbolic question: "Did we pass peak AI Overview?" Tom breaks down the shifting landscape of Google Search, analyzing why AI Overviews are no longer guaranteed to dominate the top spot and how their frequency is changing for specific search intents. Download the high-res whiteboard from the Moz Blog 👉 https://mz.cm/493z9fd *************************************** Timestamps: 00:00:08 – Introduction: Have we passed "Peak AI Overview"? 00:00:39 – The emerging trend of AI Overviews appearing below position one 00:01:28 – Data breakdown: How often AI Overviews appear in position two or lower (approx. 15% on desktop) 00:02:28 – How navigational and branded search intents (e.g., "Starbucks menu") push AI Overviews further down the page 00:03:59 – Frequency trends: The drop in AI Overviews for informational queries from July to October 2025